World Bank raises forecast for UAE’s real GDP growth to 3.9 percent in 2024; 4.1 percent in 2025

The World Bank has revised its forecast for the UAE’s real GDP growth in 2024 to 3.9 percent, up from its previous projection of 3.7 percent made in January. 

In an economic update on the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, the World Bank also increased its forecast for the UAE’s economic growth in 2025 to 4.1 percent, up from the previous estimate of 3.8 percent.

Read more: World Bank predicts 2.8 percent GDP growth for UAE

The report indicates that the UAE’s current account surplus is expected to rise to 8.4 percent in 2024 and 8.3 percent in 2025. Additionally, the country is projected to achieve a fiscal surplus of 5.1 percent by the end of this year, and 4.8 percent next year.

For the MENA region as a whole, the World Bank forecasts growth of 2.7 percent in 2024, marking a return to the low growth levels seen in the decade before the global pandemic. In 2025, the MENA region is expected to grow by 4.2 percent.

In the GCC economies, including Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE, growth is projected to improve to 2.8 percent in 2024 and 4.7 percent in 2025. This pickup is primarily driven by higher oil output due to the phasing out of production cuts, as well as robust growth in the non-oil sector linked to diversification efforts and reforms.

The World Bank also expects MENA’s GDP per capita to grow by a modest 1.3 percent in 2024, an improvement from the 0.5 percent rate in 2023. This increase is largely driven by the GCC economies, whose GDP per capita growth is forecast to be 1.0 percent in 2024, a significant improvement from the 0.9 percent decline in 2023.

Source: Trade Finance